[SMM Rebar Daily Review] Supply-demand imbalance gradually accumulates, market in the doldrums may become the main trend in the short term

Today, rebar futures fluctuated rangebound and closed at 2,981, up 0.17% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot prices, spot prices in most regions remained stable, while prices in a few regions fell by 10 yuan/mt. The market sentiment was one of wait-and-see, and overall trading performance was weaker than yesterday. On the fundamental side, EAF steel mills, facing intensified profit losses, saw some mills reducing their operating hours or halting production. Blast furnace steel mills, however, continued to enjoy considerable profits. According to the SMM survey, the impact from maintenance on construction steel this week was 1.262 million mt, a decrease of 57,000 mt WoW, indicating a slight increase in supply. On the demand side, persistent heavy rainfall in south China and high temperatures in the north limited construction speeds at downstream sites, with procurement mainly driven by immediate needs. The overall market trading atmosphere was poor. In summary, contradictions in the construction steel fundamentals are gradually emerging. With the fading impact of coking coal news, the support for rebar futures and spot prices is limited. It is expected that construction steel prices may remain in the doldrums in the short term.